As COVID cases drop more than 40% in Tri-county over past week, scientist predicts sustained period of low numbers

COVID case numbers dropped another 43% over the past seven days in the Charleston Tri-county area to 128 cases per day per 100,000 people. But the Medical University of South Carolina’s COVID-19 Epidemiology Intelligence Project still rates the virus’s impact as “severe.” That’s because while numbers are falling, they’re still relatively high. To put them in perspective, they’re around the level we saw during last summer’s peak.

But the steep decline is encouraging, said project leader Michael Sweat, Ph.D. “It is good news, and I think it's going to continue. There's a real chance that it's going to go back to where it’s almost nothing, like it was last June. And that could be sustained for months.”

While Omicron is still highly transmissible, and its subvariant, BA.2, is becoming the dominant strain in some other countries, Sweat said its reign appears to be winding down. “It gets very hard for the virus to move because it's going bump into lot of people with immunity who have just been infected.”

But COVID isn’t over, Sweat said.“It has gotten into the animal population. Once that happens, it gets very established, and just like with the flu, we get variations of it over time.”

COVID has infected hippos, hyenas, mink and deer, along with pets, such as cats, dogs and ferrets. There have been documented cases of mink spreading the virus to people. But for now, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says evidence suggests that the risk of animals infecting humans is low – but more studies are needed.

 

More variants are another concern, Sweat said. “When we have this high level of transmission going on all over the world, it really amplifies the potential for a variant. It could be worse than the ones we’ve seen. It’s a gamble, like it is with the flu. From year to year, you don’t know what you’re going to get.”

And as we’ve seen with Omicron, a new variant can be a game-changer. Omicron was first detected in South Africa in Nov. 2021. By Christmas Eve, Omicron represented more than 60% of samples sequenced at MUSC. It ultimately led to a pandemic record level of hospitalizations at MUSC Health. 

But Sweat said we’ll have more weapons in our arsenal going forward. He cited the Pfizer antiviral drug Paxlovid as a promising option. It’s been shown to reduce hospitalization and death by almost 90% and should be taken within three days of getting symptoms, he explained.

“In New York now, if you test positive, they automatically give you a prescription. They're actually bringing it to people's houses. What I envision is we'll see systems like that set up on a grand scale. You get tested, and if you test positive, you immediately have access at a pharmacy to this medication. Take five days of pills and it will reduce the viral load rapidly, which stops transmission and also stops you from going in the hospital. It's 90% effective.”

He’s also following the development of nasal vaccines, which are being tested for safety and effectiveness. Sweat said they could stop COVID in its tracks by producing antibodies in the nasal passages.

And scientists are working on universal coronavirus vaccines. “They would target the whole class of coronavirus rather than just the spike, which mutates a lot. We have a lot of science aggressively at work tackling these things, which should pay off soon.”

For now, Sweat said people should keep up their guard until case numbers get much lower. “I think there is a point where numbers are really low, where it's not as risky and you can more safely circulate around without a mask. We're not there yet.”